Today, on my way home, the high-speed train passed through Wuhan. I wore an N95 mask throughout the journey and didn't dare to relax.
Recently, there have been too many upsetting and angering things happening in the world. On the road, I started to contemplate some metaphysical questions.
What exactly is "fate"?
Airplanes are already the safest means of transportation in the world, but there is still a risk of being shot down. Doctors who have studied for more than a decade and do good deeds every day may face violence in hospitals. Viruses spread randomly and cannot be prevented completely. They are unstoppable.
From a macro perspective, the probability of these events occurring is extremely low. In 2016, the accident rate for civil aviation was 1 in 1,100,000. The average death rate of a certain virus in 2003 was between 7% and 15%. Even if we use the total population as the denominator, it is still a very low probability event.
However, once these disasters occur, they cause 100% harm to individuals.
When disasters happen, we always say it's fate, that our destiny is unknowable.
But what exactly is fate?
What is "fate"?#
I tried to explain "fate" in a more materialistic way and came up with this model:
For example, let's imagine that the average transmission rate of a certain virus is 15%. If you do nothing and continue to eat and drink as usual, there is a 15% chance of getting infected.
If you wear a qualified mask, wash your hands frequently, and avoid crowded places, this probability may quickly drop to 0.5%.
If you go further and change your mask regularly, disinfect immediately after going out and returning home, and firmly stay away from heavily affected areas, this probability may further drop to 0.1%.
Even if you do everything you can without affecting your normal life, there is still a possibility of getting infected, 0.1%. As long as this virus exists on Earth, it is not 0%.
We are all humans, living on Earth. Where else can we hide? Can we hide on the moon?
In the end, this 0.1% probability is probably fate.
In the end, this 0.1% is fate.
Have we done our best?#
Last year, NASA tweeted that there was a small asteroid that almost hit the Earth but narrowly missed. Some pessimistic people on social media expressed their regret, saying it would have been better if the Earth was destroyed.
The average distance between the Earth and the Moon is 384,403.9 km.
So yesterday, I saw someone on social media saying, "Didn't we all hope for a comet to hit the Earth before? Why are we now wearing masks and cherishing life because of this epidemic?"
There is a saying: Do your best and leave the rest to fate.
If there really was a small asteroid about to hit the Earth, with the current level of technology, we couldn't do anything. It's better to be happy.
But we could have controlled the epidemic! We could have...
With so many upsetting things happening recently, what is the root cause? We could have established a better healthcare system instead of turning system flaws into conflicts between doctors and patients. We could have banned the trading of wildlife earlier. What's with the bat sashimi? We could have had a more transparent information disclosure system and reported the epidemic in a timely manner. We could have selected officials with better judgment and action and taken decisive preventive measures. We could have had more truly professional media that provide timely and accurate information, instead of relying on WeChat groups and word of mouth.
...
Accurate judgment, decisive action, clear expression of follow-up actions and rewards and punishments, and providing alternative solutions.
An exemplary grassroots governance.
I hope everyone can think about the root causes of the problems, rather than just treating the symptoms. Natural disasters will always happen, but man-made disasters often cause greater harm. I just hope that everyone can live stable and happy lives, and not just unite in difficult times for the prosperity of the nation.
The way of the people lies in having constant possessions and constant hearts. Those without constant possessions will not have constant hearts. If they lack constant hearts, they will indulge in extravagance and licentiousness, and there is nothing they will not do.
- "Mencius · Teng Wen Gong Shang"
Oh, by the way, we can still wear masks, wash our hands frequently, and avoid crowded places. There is still time for that.
Finally#
I remember reading a quote on Medium three years ago:
"Somebody once told me the definition of hell: 'On your last day on earth, the person you became will meet the person you could have become.'"
What is hell? It's meeting the person you could have become on the last day of your life.
I hope everyone stays safe and sound. 🙏🏻
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2020/01/23 @Nanchang